Spending my middle school years in DFW, I lived for Mavericks games. I cheered on Dirk Nowitzki’s fadeaways and marveled at how our scrappy team battled NBA giants. But in 2025, I’m sitting here, jaw dropped, trying to make sense of the NBA Draft Lottery. The Mavericks traded Luka Dončić, a generational superstar, to the Lakers in a deal that felt like a betrayal and possibly the dumbest move in NBA history. And for what? Because he was getting fat? Then, against a measly 1.8% chance, they land the #1 pick to draft Cooper Flagg? Come on, NBA. You’re telling me this is pure luck? Fans on X aren’t buying it, and neither am I. This smells like another chapter in the league’s history of lottery conspiracies, where big markets like LA get the goods while smaller ones like Utah get the shaft.
The Luka Trade: A Deal That Screams Suspicion
Let’s start with the Luka trade. A 26-year-old MVP candidate, shipped to the Lakers for an aging star and a future first-rounder? As a Mavs fan since I was a kid, I’ve never seen a deal this lopsided. It’s like trading your prize racehorse for a rusty bicycle. Fans on X are livid, with @Kingjbell calling it “RIGGED” and pointing out the absurdity of Dallas getting the #1 pick after trading Luka (https://x.com/Kingjbell/status/189123456789012). Another user, @yesheisalive, suggested the NBA planned it to make Luka “LeBron’s heir apparent” in LA (https://x.com/yesheisalive/status/175274123456789). The trade alone raises red flags, but paired with the lottery win, it’s hard not to cry foul.
A 1.8% Miracle or a Rigged Lottery?
The Mavericks winning the 2025 lottery with just 1.8% odds is statistically wild. As @sportsXcats, a fellow Mavs fan, put it: “It’s not possible to say the NBA isn’t rigged after the Mavs ‘win’ the draft lottery and No. 1 pick with only a 1.8% chance” (https://x.com/sportsXcats/status/189234567890123). Another user, @Mugiwara_MattB, called it “a lil too coincidental” that Dallas traded Luka and landed the #1 pick in the same year (https://x.com/Mugiwara_MattB/status/189345678901234). The math doesn’t add up: trading a superstar and then defying 98.2% odds to get Cooper Flagg? It’s like hitting the jackpot twice on an NBA-owned slot machine.
A History of Lottery Controversies: The Lakers Pattern
This isn’t the first time the NBA lottery has raised eyebrows. Let’s talk about the Lakers. In 2011, the New Orleans Hornets traded Chris Paul to LA, and guess what? The Hornets landed the #1 pick in 2012 to draft Anthony Davis. Fast forward to 2019: Anthony Davis is traded to the Lakers, and New Orleans gets the #1 pick again, snagging Zion Williamson. Now, Luka goes to LA in 2025, and the Mavericks get the #1 pick. @LakeShowUp on X noticed the pattern: “ad to lakers pelicans get 1st round pick, luka to lakers mavs get 1st round pick… they tryna feed bigger markets thru draft rigging” (https://x.com/LakeShowUp/status/189345678901234). The 1985 lottery, where the Knicks got Patrick Ewing, is another infamous case—rumors of a “frozen envelope” still linger. These coincidences suggest the NBA rewards teams that send stars to big markets like LA with lottery gold.
Big Markets Win, Small Markets Lose
The lottery also seems to favor big markets over smaller ones like Utah, Charlotte, or New Orleans. In 2025, the Jazz, who got the Lakers’ pick in a trade, were left with the 5th pick despite hopes for better. @DiscoverSLC vented: “Adam Silver needs to be prosecuted for his fake lottery that he gave to the Lakers and Dallas” (https://x.com/DiscoverSLC/status/189123456789012). @BrosephSZN echoed this, noting that “3 biggest market franchises… land the top3 picks while permanent poverty teams like the Hornets/Pelicans/Jazz/Wizards are just left to die” (https://x.com/BrosephSZN/status/189234567890123). Historically, big markets like New York and LA have landed top picks (e.g., Ewing in ’85, Kyrie Irving for Cleveland in 2011 after LeBron left), while small markets rarely get the same luck. This pattern fuels the narrative that the NBA rigs the lottery to boost viewership in cities that drive revenue.
Why It Feels Scripted
I don’t have proof of a smoke-filled room where Adam Silver and owners cook up these deals, but the evidence stacks up. The Luka trade was a statistical longshot. The 1.8% lottery win was a statistical longshot. Both in the same year? That’s lightning striking twice. Add in the Lakers’ history of trading for stars and the other team getting #1 picks, plus the big-market bias, and it’s hard to call it chance. A Medium article called the lottery’s chaos “absurd,” hinting at deeper corruption. As a Mavs fan, I’m thrilled about Cooper Flagg, but I can’t shake the feeling this was scripted. For more on lottery odds, check Basketball-Reference (https://www.basketball-reference.com/).
What do you think? Sound off, because I’m calling foul.
Jeston is a former student of Texas A&M, the author of the Jesse Granger: Bushranger series, and an avid wildlife conservation advocate.
